News

November 12, 2008

Richard Elman At Commodities Trading House Noble Group Reckons He Can See The Bottom Of This Market

By Our Man in Oz

Richard Elman is “seeing the bottom”. That’s either a very clever trick from a man with an office in a high-rise overlooking the murky waters of Hong Kong harbour, or good news for investors in mining shares. The latter is the more likely option, as Elman is one of the best positioned and more influential observers of world commodity markets. As founder and chief executive of Noble Group, he has spent a lifetime trading with China. If anyone knows what’s happening there, it’s Elman. His “bottom spotting”, plus an observation that the recovery will come over the next 12 to 18 months, is one of the more optimistic forecasts around relating to the outlook for commodity markets. But, better still, he’s not alone.

Over the past few weeks, as the bad news has piled up in markets around the world, slivers of light have been breaking through. China’s “economic stimulus” package was announced the day before Elman spoke at the release of Noble Group’s third-quarter results. A few days earlier there was another positive sign as regards commodity demand next year, in the shape of the flying visit to Australia by one of China’s top politicians, Zhou Yongkang. Mr Zhou, a member of the all-powerful politburo, was...