News

June 30, 2008

Don’t Believe The Naysayers: Global Growth Remains Robust

By Rob Davies

Halfway through the year is a good time to take stock of where markets are. Particularly as we are now in the seventh year of this bull market. Those observers thinking that this is it, that there is no more upside may yet be disappointed. While there are plenty of risks for the commodity forecaster it seems that most of them remain to the upside. Minews is greatly helped in reviewing the world by the timely arrival of the Société Générale Commodity Review for the second quarter of 2008. As ever it makes sense to understand the demand picture. This is always the most important piece of the equation, but is also the hardest to get right.

Contrary to what we are being told here in the UK, that our economic problems stem from a global economic collapse, the world economy is in rude health. Sure, it might only be growing at a rate of 3.9 per cent in 2008, a lot less than the 5.3 per cent of the last two years, but not bad all the same. Next year is expected to be a tad slower at 3.7 per cent but even that is well over twice what the industrialised countries are expected to do this year and next. But then, they were only growing at...